As we move deeper into late fall, Simcoe County is starting to show the classic signs of a seasonal slowdown—fewer sales, fewer new listings, and a more cautious approach from sellers. But this week also revealed something more meaningful: a second consecutive decline in active listings after months of steady build-up. That shift may seem subtle, but it’s one of the earliest indicators of a tightening market.
Here’s what changed this week, why it matters, and how it could shape the early 2026 real estate landscape.
The week of November 10–16 saw sales drop from 126 to 97, a meaningful decrease as buyers naturally retreat during the colder months. Even with slower activity, the average sale price held steady, inching up from $754,420 to $758,226. This stability suggests that despite cooling demand, values remain supported by the underlying fundamentals of the market.
New listings also pulled back sharply, falling from 434 to 363. Sellers are clearly beginning their winter retreat, bringing fewer new properties to market. What makes this trend more notable is that new listings declined faster than sales, which is keeping overall supply from ballooning the way it typically does in late fall.
The most important stat this week is the change in active listings. Inventory dropped from 5,014 to 4,925—marking the second straight week of decline after months of increases. This shift suggests that supply is beginning to contract earlier than expected. If this pattern holds through late November and into December, it could set the stage for a more balanced and competitive start to 2026.
Despite the slower pace of sales, homes actually sold faster this week. Days on market improved from 51 to 44, showing that the buyers who are active right now are more decisive and motivated. Meanwhile, the sales-to-new-listings ratio dipped slightly from 29% to 27%, keeping the market firmly in balanced territory. The list-to-sale ratio also remained steady at 96%, indicating sellers are still achieving close to their asking prices.
Months of inventory sat unchanged at 8.18, reflecting a market that is slow but not oversupplied—another signal that the early-fall surge in inventory may be leveling off.
Inventory is beginning to contract, which could support stronger price stability heading into early 2026.
Buyer urgency is quietly improving, with homes selling seven days faster on average.
Sellers are pulling back more quickly, reducing the number of new listings and easing pressure on supply.
The winter market may be slower, but more balanced, compared to the heavy inventory conditions we saw earlier in the fall.
If this trend continues, buyers and sellers entering the market in January or February may find conditions more favourable than anticipated.
Even in a slower season, market conditions are shifting beneath the surface—and knowing where your home stands right now can give you an advantage heading into the new year.
A free home evaluation can help you understand:
How your home fits into today’s market
Whether inventory changes may benefit your plans
What early 2026 could look like for your neighbourhood