August 29, 2025:

Ontario Real Estate Market Update: August 2025

The latest data shows Ontario’s housing market is beginning to shift. While the market hasn’t fully recovered, signs of improvement are emerging — from easing inflation to steady sales. If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing this fall, here’s what you need to know.


Interest Rates and Inflation: Relief Ahead

Inflation dropped to 1.7% in July, and experts expect interest rates to come down this fall. That means borrowing costs should stay steady for now, with potential savings for buyers and homeowners on the horizon.

Takeaway: If you’re waiting on lower mortgage rates, the relief may be coming soon.


Housing Supply: More Rentals, Fewer Homes

Construction is booming, but mostly for rental buildings. At the same time, new permits for single-family homes are at long-term lows. Major developers are also pulling back on future projects.

Takeaway: While rentals are going up, detached homes may become harder to find — which could push prices up later.


Home Sales and Inventory: Signs of Recovery

Sales rose nearly 4% in July and are up 28% in Ontario since spring. Inventory (the number of homes for sale) dropped slightly, and prices are holding steady at about 18% below the peak.

Takeaway: The market is starting to balance out. Expect more activity this fall as buyers step back in.


GTA Condos: Today’s Challenge, Tomorrow’s Opportunity

Condo sales in the GTA are at historic lows, with only 150 new sales in July. But over the next decade, the number of new condos being built will fall sharply.

Takeaway: For long-term investors, this is a chance to buy at lower prices before supply runs out.


Mortgages and Renewals: Manageable for Most

More people are choosing fixed-rate mortgages, and new loan approvals are up 30% compared to last year. Homeowners renewing their mortgages are seeing payments increase, but most are managing with banks reporting a 6–8% rise on average.

Takeaway: Lending remains supportive, and renewal risks are not as bad as many feared.


Consumer Confidence: Mixed but Stable

Consumer confidence dipped slightly, and savings rates are dropping, but retail sales remain steady. Some Ontarians are struggling with debt, but overall insolvencies (bankruptcies) have not increased nationally.

Takeaway: Families are cautious, but spending hasn’t slowed significantly.


Bottom Line: Why This Fall Matters

Ontario’s real estate market is showing early signs of recovery. With rates expected to ease, sales rising, and future shortages likely, this fall could be one of the best windows in years to buy or invest with confidence.


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