The fall listing season arrived in Simcoe County this week, and it arrived all at once. New listings jumped to 559 while sales slowed to 124, pushing months of inventory back above eight for the first time since August. The average sale price moved higher again. Buyers continue to hold the overall advantage, and this week they gained ground.
From September 7 to 13, 124 homes sold across the county. That is the quietest week of the past six. The average sale price came in at $769,992, up roughly three per cent from the week before.
The supply side did the opposite. There were 559 new listings, an increase of about 13 per cent, and active inventory rose to 5,334 properties after several weeks of gradual decline. The sales-to-new-listing ratio fell to 22%, meaning roughly four homes came to market for every one that sold.
Sellers who waited out the summer are now listing, and they are doing it in volume. This was the heaviest week for new supply in well over a month.
The timing is normal. Early September usually brings a surge of listings once vacations end and families settle into the school year. What makes this week notable is that the surge landed in the same week sales hit their slowest point, so the effect on the balance between supply and demand was amplified in both directions at once.
Months of inventory rose to 8.4, up from the mid-sevens a week earlier and the highest reading in the past six weeks.
For context, six months of supply is the rough dividing line between a buyer's market and a balanced one. At 8.4, Simcoe County is not near that line, and last week's dip toward seven and a half months now looks like a pause rather than a turn.
More than 5,300 properties are available across the county. Buyers who spent the summer watching inventory build have not lost any of that leverage.
The average sale price has now increased three weeks running, from the low $740,000s to just under $770,000.
That deserves the same caution as always. With only 124 sales in the week, a handful of transactions at the upper end can pull the county-wide average up without telling you much about what any individual home is worth. Three consecutive weeks of increases is more interesting than one, but it is still a small sample.
What the number does suggest is that demand has not disappeared at the higher price points, even as overall activity thins out. The list-to-sale price ratio held at 96% and average days on market held at 47, both unchanged, which points to a market that is quieter rather than one that is deteriorating.
This is the most competitive week for sellers in some time, and the reason is the neighbours, not the buyers.
With 559 homes newly listed and sales at their lowest point in six weeks, the pool of homes competing for each buyer's attention grew substantially. Anything overpriced now sits beside a much longer list of alternatives.
The steady 96% list-to-sale ratio is the encouraging part of the picture. Buyers are still paying close to asking on homes that earn it. The work is in making sure yours is the one they shortlist, which comes down to being realistic on price from day one and making the home look its best in photos before anyone walks through the door.
This was a good week to be a buyer. More selection arrived, competition for each property eased, and the negotiating position that comes with 8.4 months of supply strengthened rather than softened.
The practical advantage is timing. Newly listed homes tend to get their most serious attention in the first two weeks, and there are more of them on the market right now than at any point this season. Being organised on financing means you can move on the right one without hesitating.
Simcoe County saw its slowest sales week and its heaviest listing week land together, which pushed months of inventory back to 8.4 and firmly reinforced buyer-favourable conditions. The average sale price continued to climb, though on thin volume.
For buyers, the selection and the leverage both improved. For sellers, the number of homes competing alongside yours went up sharply, which makes how you price and present it matter more this month than last.
Whether you're considering buying, selling or simply trying to understand what these numbers mean for your plans, connect with a Faris Team Sales Partner to build a strategy around today's market.